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The $1M Bitcoin Bet Rationale is Explained by Balaji Srinivasan, Who Says It May Take More Than 90 Days


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    Entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan explained the rationale for his bet that bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million in price by June 17 as he spoke remotely by video link at CoinDesk’s Consensus 2023 conference, which is being held in Austin, Texas.

    Srinivasan, a former chief technology officer of crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), is credited by many for predicting the effects of COVID-19 earlier than most. In March, he predicted stupendously bullish prospects for bitcoin in response to the devaluing of the U.S. dollar. He said the price could reach $1 million in 90 days after March 17.

    "Could it be that it takes 900 days or even 90 months? It's possible, I don't have a 100% probability on it," Srinivasan said on Friday.

    "I may be wrong, but I'm burning a million to tell you they're printing trillions."

    He described his prediction as a "symbol" of the "collapse in full faith and credit in the U.S. financial system," because of a proliferation of money printing by the government to prop up a fragile banking system.

    Relating the chances of bitcoin reaching $1 million to the probability of some sort of Black Swan event in the U.S. economy, Srinivasan said he thinks there's a 10% chance of a very serious issue in months, a 70% chance of one in years, a 19% chance within decades and a 1% chance it takes a century or more.

    "So, I don't think it's 100%, but the specific number I think is high as I see a lot of fragility in the system."

    CORRECTION (April 28, 17:30 UTC): Earlier version said Srinivasan said there's a 90% chance of a serious issue within decades. Corrects to 19% and adds the 1% probability that this would take a century.

    Edited by Oliver Knight.

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